Buncombe County – The crime statistics released by the Buncombe County Sheriff’s Office from the first half of 2021 allegedly show a “decline in major crime categories.” The Tribune examined the numbers and discovered a different account.
The Tribune was sparked to investigate the numbers after it received a press release from the Buncombe County Sheriff’s Department dated July 30 by Aaron Sarver, Buncombe County Sheriff’s Office Public Information Officer. Sarver stated, “Larceny/theft is down two percent, breaking and enterings are down 18 percent and non-sexuala assaults are down three percent.”
However, a closer look at the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) numbers, obtained by the Tribune, show a different story.
After asking Sarver for the numbers, he sent the Tribune the UCR totals:
Larcenies/Theft
2020: January-July: 744
2021: January-July: 725
Breaking and Enterings
2020: January-July: 265
2021: January-July: 217
Non-Sexual Assaults
2020: January-July: 462
2021: January-July: 446”
The difference in UCR and NIBRS numbers
Sarver sent UCR numbers to the Tribune when we requested a more detailed source of numbers. UCR, or Uniformed Crime Reporting, is an old way of keeping crime data. According to law enforcement sources, NIBRS is now how the crime statistics should be kept, which gives more details of the crimes the suspect was charged with.
What the Tribune found
The NIBRS numbers, the figures currently used by the FBI to gather crime stats, obtained by the Tribune, show that there were overall 476 larcenies in the first half of 2020 and during the first half of 2021. The overall larcenies are 510, a more than seven percent increase rather than down two percent as reported by Sarvar.
While breaking and enterings were down, the Tribune figure shows the percentage is only about 11.5 percent down and not 18 percent. However, by the figures obtained by the Tribune, non-sexual assaults are up nearly seven percent and not down three percent. With 412 non-sexual assaults occurring during the first half of 2021 compared to 386 in the same period in 2020.
Wrong assumptions
“This new enforcement strategy appears to be paying off with a lower crime rate as reflected in the drop in crime rates so far in 2021,” said Sarver in his press release on July 30.
However, about the numbers submitted to him by the Tribune, Sarver said, “Looks like your calculations are based off of the ‘top charge,’ and that is certainly valid. My understanding is that is how crime stats were calculated a few years back, but most agencies have moved away from that ‘UCR’ method including the Sheriff’s Office.”
However, when Sarver sent the Tribune the numbers we requested, he said they were URC numbers, but the Tribune acquired the NIBRS number, which we sent to Sarver through a different source.
Sarver goes on to say, “I will be the first to admit I do not understand all the changes in top charge versus NIBRS versus UCR calculations. Despite different methodologies, your stats show a 11.5 percent reduction in B&E’s and the raw numbers of charges in each category are lower. Your numbers would show a fairly significantly reduced indexed crime rate.”
Sarver did not address the increase in non-sexual assaults which we found.
Asked about sexual assaults, Sarver sent numbers comparing the first half of 2020 with the first half of 2021. When the Tribune compared numbers from the first half of 2020 to the first half of this year, the Tribune found sex offenses (coded 90Z) nearly doubled from 35 to 63. Sarver’s email confirmed the Tribune’s numbers.
Other crime numbers
The Tribune’s investigation into other NIBRS numbers found the following:
False imprisonment and kidnapping when from 2 in 2020 to 7 in 2021.
Child Neglect (coded 90F) went from 5 to 61.
50B Violation (coded 90Z) was down from 24 to 14.
Damage to personal property and to real property along with vandalism was up from 132 to 152.
Overall fraud was down from 206 to 173
Homicide was down from two in 2020 to one in 2021.
Editor’s note: Be sure to read related commentary on page 11.