Asheville – “A boring election with extraordinary consequences” was the topic as the Leadership Asheville Forum reconvened for its monthly Critical Issues Luncheon in November at the Asheville Country Club. More than 50 attendees were on-hand to hear an analysis of the recent election from Dr. Chris Cooper.
Cooper is a Distinguished Professor at Western Carolina University and director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at the university. Cooper is frequently published and cited by national media as an expert on American politics, and a popular speaker at Critical Issues Luncheons.
Cooper described the election as predictable and in many ways “boring” as many results were called quickly or held in districts that were not truly competitive. He pointed out that some pollsters were able to predict an election map that accurately matched the results of the presidential election down to the state. Key factors include the popularity of the incumbent party and the rate or perception of inflation.
Cooper stated that the small number of U.S. Senate seats which were flipped were not unexpected. Four seats changed parties in the 2024 election, including in heavily Republican states such as Montana and West Virginia. An average of 3.6 Senate seats flip every election.
Within the U.S. House of Representatives, Cooper stated that the only competitive district in all of the southern U.S. was North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District. “It’s a good time to be a Republican in the South,” said Cooper.
At the state level, Cooper described North Carolina’s position as a purple state, or a mix of red and blue party lines. “Being a purple state means we’re somewhere near the middle of the country. I never said it was a swing state,” said Cooper, noting that NC is the 25th most democratic state in the nation.
Most counties in the state voted predictably along party lines, with a clearly evident divide between rural and urban voters. Cooper pointed out that Buncombe, Transylvania and Henderson counties moved away from the Republican party and Donald Trump the most in North Carolina. Though acknowledging the potential impacts of Hurricane Helene as a cause, Cooper suggested this was more a broader shift in the region.
Cooper noted the habit of split-ticket voting in North Carolina, with Democrats winning state offices and Republicans winning national races. “We like basketball, barbecue, CookOut, and splitting tickets” said Cooper to chuckles throughout the room.
Cooper noted that a sizable number of Republicans voted for Democrat Josh Stein for governor. The gubernatorial race ended with a historic margin of 15.5% in favor of Stein. “There was nothing normal about the governor race,” said Cooper, in reference to the controversy surrounding Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson’s candidacy.
Cooper emphasized that the election was conducted fairly and predictably, with Democrats doing well with their reasonable options while Republicans succeeded with messaging. “Democrats communicate GDP growth, while the Republicans say ‘Well, how much do eggs cost?’ The economy is a framing issue,” said Cooper.
Cooper took questions from the audience, including more of the “extraordinary consequences” of the election as Republicans took over all three branches of the federal government, and the time frame for changes to be felt at the local level. He also emphasized the importance of voting in primaries with so few truly competitive races, as well as candidates’ need to embrace new forms of campaigning including podcasts and alternative media sources. Finally, he turned his attention to the active state legislative session, where a bill for Hurricane Helene relief was actively being debated.
In lieu of the usual Critical Issues Luncheon, Leadership Asheville Forum will hold a Christmas party on December 11. The forums continue in 2025, kicking off with a January 22 update from RiverLink representatives Lisa Raleigh and Renee Fortner. The nonprofit conservation organization will provide an overview of the impacts of Hurricane Helene and how we can more effectively live with the French Broad River.